Year 8 Science · Unit 4 · Lesson 16
Challenge Worksheet
Learning Goals
Compare two
Complete the comparison table for three real computer models. Fill in every blank cell.
| Feature | Weather model (ACCESS) | Climate model | Bushfire spread model |
|---|---|---|---|
| What system does it represent? | |||
| Name one input it needs. | |||
| How far ahead does it usually predict? | |||
| Who uses the output, and why? |
Scenario
A news article reads: "A climate model predicts that average summer temperatures in this region could rise by 2 degrees Celsius by 2070." A reader comments: "Nobody can know the future, so this is just a wild guess." Use the three questions below to respond carefully.
(a) Explain why a climate model's prediction is more than a wild guess. Refer to inputs, rules and step-by-step calculation in your answer.
(b) The reader is partly right that the future is uncertain. Explain two real limitations of the model that mean the prediction should be treated with care.
(c) Scientists validate climate models by testing them against past records. Explain in 2-3 sentences how validation builds trust in a model, and why this is better than simply believing the computer.
Wrap Up
In one sentence, why can a model have real limitations and still be far more useful than guessing?